LECTURE #9THE GREAT DEPRESSION AND WORLD WAR II
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Canada had experienced severe downturns in economic activity in the 1870s, 1890s, and at the end of World War I, but nothing like the depression of the 1930s which was unusual for its severity and length. What caused it and why was it so bad? - nothing uniquely "Canadian" could have caused it because it happened in most other developed countries at about the same time - not the stock market crash in the US in 1929 -- there had been earlier financial panics which had far less devastating effects - not "overproduction" of goods in the 1920s, because we have no reason to believe people in the 1930s had more goods than they needed...or wanted -- anything but! - not international economic rivalry, although that certainly made it worse once it began - possibly the failure of the American Federal Reserve to immediately support the credit supply, although that gets us into an ongoing doctrinal debate in economic theory.
Why so bad in Canada?
While some Canadian industries withstood the crisis (gold mining actually boomed, some large companies like Bell Canada prospered, and the Irving empire in the Maritimes expanded) most cut back drastically on investment, many simply failed. The commercial banking system curtailed credit to reduce losses due to bad debts and the money supply contracted. For most Canadians, the thirties were bitterly
hard years.
Mass unemployment increased rapidly in 1930, peaked in 1932-33, declined until 1937 and began to grow again until eliminated with the outbreak of World War II There was no unemployment insurance.
Municipal and private charitable services
designed to meet the needs of "indigents" were overwhelmed.
- why didn't markets correct the situation automatically the way economic theory said they would? - with stocks so cheap, why didn't people begin buying them and causing their prices to rise again? - with labour so plentiful (thousands of unemployed) why didn't wage rates fall enough to restore the "demand" for labour and reduce the unemployment to "normal" levels? - with som many business people in need of more credit, why were the banks reducing the supply of it? - with interest rates falling, why didn't businesses take advantage of the opportunity to finance new investments? Was something fundamentally wrong with the free-market, capitalist system? Had the time come to look for an alternative
to it?
A massive rearmament program initiated by the Nazis in 1932 made Germany the first of the major industrial countries to recover from the Depression. The appeal of fascism:
Rejection of weak liberal-democratic decision-making.
Marxism provided what many found to be an intellectually appealing alternative to market capitalism, but, despite the favourable impression created by the Soviet experiment in Russia, the Marxist-Leninist option failed to attract mass support in any of the western industrial democracies. A more acceptable alternative there was a more moderate form of socialism compatible with established liberal-democratic values. But could such a system combining central planning with the political institutions of liberal democracy be made to work? Critics, such as Ludwig von Mises argued that it could not because political decision-making could not be economically efficient. Socialists countered by pointing out the evident failures of market systems to perform as advertised - and some economists (notably Oscar Lange) demonstrated that a centrally planned economy could (theoretically) lead to the efficiency outcomes promised (but not delivered) by perfectly competitive markets. Many democratic socialist governments were
elected and given a chance to show what they could do.
- left-leaning academics
Gained strong local support in Saskatchewan and formed first socialist government elected to office in North America in 1944. Also won seats in Ontario and became a threat to the traditional Conservative and Liberal parties nationally.
- peculiar theoretical foundation provided
by a British engineer, Major
Douglas.
Held ffice in Alberta from 1935 until 1971.
- the powerful Roman Catholic Church in
the province
Dominated Quebec political life from the
1930s until the 1960s by appealing to French-Canadian
nationalist sentiment, while making Quebec an attractive place for
outsiders to do business
- raised tariffs to protect jobs
On even of the 1935 1935 federal election Bennet responded to declining public support by proposing a Canadian version of Roosevelt's "New Deal" Too late -- the Liberals won the election
and remained in power for the next 22 years.
- the first comprehensive study of Canadian
economic development since Confederation
Unemployment and less-than-capacity production was eliminated by government spending to finance Canada's contribution to the war effort, under the direction of the "Minister of Everything", C.D. Howe. The public finance and jurisdictional problems addressed by the Royal Commission disappeared with the federal government's assertion of control on the grounds of a national emergy. The "book-keeping" constraints which had
hobbled government intervention in the Depression economy were quickly
dismantled to finance the war effort. As much money as needed could be
created by the central bank…which would simply purchase government bonds.
A new problem emerged as the economy heated up -- the risk of inflation This was dealt with by:
There was concern that the ugly aftermath of World War I would be repeated, with a postwar recession, unemployment, social unrest. In the UK a blueprint for the British postwar "welfare state" prepared by William Beveridge for the Labour Party was promising that everyone would be able to enjoy "cradle to grave" security; guaranteed employment, publicly-funded universal health care, education, and a host of social services. In Canada a similar planning document, the Marsh Report, proposed a comprehensive social security program for postwar Canada, received a rather luke-warm hearing from Mackenzie King. Behind all this planning hovered the vaguely understood new macro-economic theory of John Maynard Keynes, whose great treatise, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, published in 1936, showed how it could all be done.
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